By Fuquan Bilal
Deals on non-performing mortgage loans are in high demand. So, with the economy and housing market reportedly so strong, what might trigger mortgage defaults, and give note investors more assets to buy?
Being alert to these causes of default can give you the edge to see where things are headed, be able to get ahead of the competition, and work out notes, obtain deeds in lieu of foreclosure, or grant profitable short sales.
Rent controls have long proven to be counterproductive. New sweeping rent controls in California and New York are only likely to prove the same. Investors have been buying up record amounts of property in the anticipation of bumping up rents, or flipping them to institutional investors for yields. Now those profits have been cut off. Lenders don’t want to loan on such deals, and those with commercial loans that are maturing could find themselves in trouble.
When regulators cut off the appeal and safety of making mortgage loans to retail home buyers, those with the capital found new ways to deploy their money. Consumer debt has been one of the biggest buckets. They have few rules in this space, and can charge so much more interest and fees. Then as usual, when people begin using these credit lines, creditors cut them off, sending credit scores diving and these borrowers into a downward spiral. That can also cut many homeowners off from home equity lines and prevent them from refinancing and tapping equity, even though they may have recently invested a lot of this credit in improving their homes.
Some areas have been experiencing a whole new spree in taxes over the past few years. Look at NY. Following the cap on state and local tax deductions, they’ve been hit with online sales taxes, mansion taxes, new real estate transfer tax hikes, and higher annual property taxes. That could be just the tip of the iceberg depending on which way the election goes in November. Many people haven’t been prepared for all these tax hits.
Destruction Of The New Remote Working Economy
A new California law may have just put an end to the new freelance and remote working economy. The new law has given businesses the choice between treating freelance talent as full time in house employees, with all the risk and cost that brings, or to conduct mass layoffs. Most seem to be choosing the latter. Thousands of truck drivers could be out of work. Media companies are laying off hundreds of workers. Much of the California economy and tech industry have been relying on this type of talent to operate and make profits. Should this roll out to other states the impact will be even worse. Freelancing platform Upwork alone has some 12 million freelancers. As many as 60% of all workers in places like Brooklyn are believed to be remote workers. These workers have made unemployment numbers look low for years. If that type of employment is gone, what’s going to happen with a 60% unemployment rate? How about even a 16% unemployment rate? How are all of these people going to be able to pay their mortgages?
Failed New Construction Projects
In the long term we may still be far under the level of housing we need. Yet, builders have been focused on high end luxury product and smaller and smaller units. Thousands and thousands of these units squeezed into small urban areas are going unsold. Some have remained on the market for four years already. They are too expensive or just don’t fit what buyers are looking for. Sooner or later more of these developers are going to be foreclosed on.
It’s been great to see the thousands of investors who have been inspired to get into real estate and mortgage debt over the past decade. Yet, many have been purely speculating. They are trying wholesaling, are bankrupting themselves on house flips without knowing what they are doing, or have bought into the pitch that it is only about cash flow. Many are only weeks away from broke. A couple of stalled closings and they are going to be in trouble.
As a forward thinking note investor, these are all huge opportunities to help others and make some great profits in the process.
Find out more about investing in secured debt and real estate, go to NNG Capital Fund
Fuquan Bilal founded NNG in 2012 with the principal mission of capitalizing on the growing supply of mortgage notes in the interbank marketplace. Mr .Bilal utilizes his 17 years of residential and commercial real estate success to identify real estate opportunities and capitalize on them. To date, he has successfully managed three private mortgage note funds that primarily invest in singlefamily performing and nonperforming mortgage notes. His financial acumen and proprietary set of investment criteria enable him to purchase underperforming real estate assets at a deep discount of face and market values, thereby increasing the value of the assets. This, coupled with his ability to maximize the use of leverage, enables him to build strong, secured portfolios with solid passive income flows.